I compiled some numbers regarding which programs have won 10+ games in the regular season since Tedford's arrival in 2002, and here's what I found. After categorizing the teams based on whether the school is an automatic qualifier for the BCS, sitting back, and comparing these findings to recent college football history, I'll leave it up to you if you think it's an accurate picture of where the Cal program stands right now.
TEDFORD v. THE NATION, 2002-10
10 wins or more in the regular season, 2002-10
ELITE (6 schools)
AQ Schools (4):
Ohio St. 7^@~
Oklahoma 7^@
Texas 6^@
USC 6^@*
Non-AQ Schools (2):
Boise St. 8^
TCU 6^
POWERHOUSE (11 schools)
AQ Schools (9):
LSU 5@
Virginia Tech 5
Georgia 4
Alabama 3^@
Auburn 3^@~
Florida 3^@
Oregon 3^~
Penn St. 3
West Virginia 3
Non-AQ Schools (2):
BYU 4
Utah 3^
ON THE CUSP (11 schools)
AQ Schools (11):
Arkansas 2
Cincinnati 2^
Hawaii 2^
Iowa 2
Kansas St. 2
Louisville 2
Miami 2^
Michigan 2
Missouri 2
Notre Dame 2
Wisconsin 2
Non-AQ Schools (0)
ONE AND DONE (25 schools)
AQ Schools (17):
Arizona St.
Boston College
California
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Kansas
Maryland
Michigan St.
Nebraska
North Carolina St.
Oklahoma St.
Rutgers
Stanford
Tennessee
Texas Tech
Washington St.
Wake Forest
Non-AQ Schools (8):
Ball St.
Bowling Green
Central Florida
Central Michigan
Colorado St.
Miami (OH)
Nevada
Northern Illinois
^includes undefeated regular season(s)
@includes national title(s)
*7 before NCAA violations
~NCAA investigation pending
TEDFORD v. THE PAC-10, 2002-10
Here are the regular season records for the last 8 years of Pac-10 teams that made the Rose Bowl or any BCS Bowl, with Tedford's regular season records in italics:
2002: Washington St.* (10-2, 7-1) and USC% (10-2, 7-1);
Cal (7-5, 4-4)
2003: USC* (12-1, 7-1);
Cal (7-6, 5-3)
2004: USC% (12-0, 8-0);
Cal (10-1, 7-1)
2005: USC* (12-0, 8-0);
Cal (7-4, 4-4)
2006: USC* (10-2, 7-2);
Cal (9-3, 7-2)
2007: USC* (10-2, 7-2);
Cal (6-6, 3-6)
2008: USC* (11-1, 8-1);
Cal (8-4, 6-3)
2009: Oregon* (10-2, 8-1);
Cal (8-4, 5-4)
2010: Oregon# (12-0, 9-0) and Stanfrod% (11-1, 8-1);
Cal (5-7, 3-6)
* = Rose Bowl, ^ = Fiesta Bowl, % = Orange Bowl, # = BCS Title Game
Note: Many of USC's 2004 and 2005 games have since been vacated; Oregon currently under NCAA investigation for cheating
The last Pac-10 team to go to the Rose Bowl with single-digit regular season wins was Stanford in 1999 (8-4, 7-1). Keep in mind that they finished first in the Pac-10 to earn their berth to Pasadena.
So if you break down Tedford's regular seasons at Cal, they go like this:
National championship consideration (12 wins) = 0
BCS "worthy" season (10-12 wins) = 1 (2004)
Conference contender (9 wins) = 1 (2006)
Above average (8 wins) = 2 (2008, 2009)
Just competitive (6-7 wins) = 4 (2002, 2003, 2005, 2007)
Below average (4-5 wins)= 1 (2010)
Cellar dweller (0-3 wins) = 0
Regular season wins (average) = 7.4/year
Total wins (average) = 8.0/year
WHAT DO THESE STATS MEAN?
I don't think it's outlandish for Cal fans to expect Tedford to steer the team to a BCS bowl once every 4-5 years. If making an
occasional Rose Bowl or any BCS bowl is the goal of this program, then based on the numbers above, 8 wins per season would be a reasonable floor in the Tedford era from this point forward, with 9 wins as a median, because it will most likely take at least 10 regular season wins to even have a shot to make it there.
On a personal note, I've been going to games since 1988, and while the program has sucked for a long time and have never had the same level of prolonged success since the famed Wonder Teams of the 20s or "Pappy's Boys" of the 50s, the expectations have risen after Tedford received two things his predecessors only dreamed of:
1. $2.3 million salary. In 1992, the program lost head coach Bruce Snyder after a 10-2 season and a Citrus Bowl win (Cal's last New Year's Day bowl), mainly because they weren't able to match Arizona State's offer of a raise. Tedford is now the highest-paid employee of the entire UC system, Nike talent fee or not, and there is no question that the Bear Backers will do everything possible to field a top 25 program.
2. New facilities. The SAHPC will be done soon, and the renovation of Memorial Stadium will be complete after the team plays their 2011 home games in AT&T Park. For decades, coaches from Marv Levy to Tom Holmoe complained that they could not recruit on equal footing with rival programs because of sub-standard training facilities. Not anymore.
FINAL THOUGHTS
In sum, while Tedford should be given most (if not all) of the credit that comes with a consistent winning program, a rejuvenated fanbase, an upgrade in the talent level on the roster, and a Nike contract, judging from the results
on the field, the program still has a long way to go before it can truly compete with the elite programs on a national level, much less a conference level.
When watching Oregon and Stanford play on national television in a battle of two top ten teams last year, I was taken aback by the fact that there was nary a mention of Cal's chances in the conference race, a departure from seasons past.
But it seems that the Ducks have surpassed Cal in the Pac-10 pecking order. Even though they're on probation, USC is still USC, as evidenced by their continued ability to recruit blue-chip players. Those programs are definitely ahead of us right now.
Sadly, I didn't feel that way about Oregon two years ago. From 2004-08, media consensus was that Cal was the only other show in town beside the Trojans, the bona fide No. 2 (and rising) program on the West Coast.
Does that still ring true now?
Oregon St. has outperformed the Bears on the field and in the standings the past four years.
This year, Arizona and Stanford are ranked ahead of Cal, and barring a miracle run, it would mark the second straight year both schools will have finished ahead of the Bears in the Pac-10 race. These aren't the scrimmages that exemplified past meetings with John Mackovic's U of A teams, or the bumbling two-headed monster of Buddy Teevens and Walt Harris that headed a Mickey Mouse operation on the Farm.
While I think Washington still has a way to go to be a legitimate threat to win the conference, they have beaten the Bears two years running and have now knocked off USC twice in two years.
My point is that not only is Cal NOT the second-best program in the Pac-10 anymore, Tedford & Co. are in danger of falling deeper, and fighting for third place with Arizona and Stanford is becoming a war in itself.
Again, I am NOT calling for Tedford's head. Believe it or not, I think it's only fair that he stays on the Cal sideline as long as he wants based on everything he's done for the program.
But I'll ask you this question, which requires a simple reply of either yes or no:
Is this program better today than it was in the Holiday Bowl five years ago?
Where does Gilroy's Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero fall in the Top 10?
