Beltran to S.F., but does it make sense?

Is a 34-year-old Carlos Beltran worth ransacking the Giants' farm system? (AP)

It's been awhile since I've waxed philosophical on anything but boxing, but after learning the news that the Mets' Carlos Beltran will likely take the next flight to SFO, my eyes continued to scan the byline--for whom Brian Sabean would be giving up to acquire him.

It turns out the organization's top prospect, Single-A pitcher Zack Wheeler, would be packing his bags in such a scenario. He probably won't be the only one as center fielder Gary Brown has also been mentioned.

Of course, to the instant gratification crowd, the deal brings excitement. It's just what the doctor ordered for a team whose offensive production has been as futile as a Floyd Mayweather PR campaign. Ex-A's GM and current Met personnel chief Sandy Alderson has even reportedly offered to take on the bulk of Beltran's salary.

To me, however, this deal evokes thoughts of buyer beware. Let's break down the various ways the trade can play out for the Giants:

1. The Beltran of old emerges to fill the power void left by Buster Posey, the Giants return to the World Series, and Sabean looks like a genius regardless how good Wheeler turns out to be. Got it.

2. Beltran is marginally effective, the Giants win the division, and flame out in the postseason. In that case, do you still break the bank to keep him? Everyone remembers Carlos as Señor Octubre from his Ruthian run as a Rent-A-Star in Houston, but that was seven years, countless trips to the disabled list, and $119 million ago. He's also 34. On the other hand, taking away Brandon Belt (who is already with the club), the 21-year-old Wheeler is considered by Baseball America to be the best farmhand the Giants have left.

3. Beltran pulls a Shea Hillenbrand and plays so poorly he ends up spelling Nate Schierholtz and Andres Torres in the outfield come crunch time. Meanwhile, Wheeler shoots up to the Big Apple after the trade and becomes a Cy Young-caliber force in the game.

I've always subscribed to the theory that you should never trade the cream of your farm system for role players, especially with the panic that accompanies a mid-season swoon. This is obviously not the case in that Beltran is an All-Star talent and a difference-maker on any lineup. It also helps that having a rotation of six pitchers capable of winning double-digit games can a minor league hurler expendable.

But at any rate, if Beltran were to bolt next season, anything less than a National League pennant would be calamitous if Wheeler turned out be the second coming.

Ask the Red Sox if they would get rid of Jeff Bagwell again so that the Astros' Larry Andersen could solidify their bullpen for the stretch run. Or the Tigers if they would rather have kept John Smoltz instead of going for the gusto with then-Atlanta starter Doyle Alexander.

Or how about my all-time favorite, shipping Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, AND Brandon Phillips to Cleveland for half a season of Bartolo Colon (although to be fair, Expos GM Omar Minaya felt he had nothing to lose since Major League Baseball had legitimately threatened to contract the franchise at the time).

The difference between those teams and the Giants, however, is that none of them were defending a world title. Sabean has definitely earned himself the leeway to jettison Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran. Let's hope his latest roll of the dice comes out with that championship feeling.