The showdown at Autzen Stadium officially ended at 8:35pm on Halloween night, but the onslaught was so prevalent that it would not surprise me to see the scoreboard operator still out there manning his post. In an impressive 47-20 romp, Oregon boldly snatched the keys to the Pac-10 and derailed the seemingly unstoppable Trojan Express. At first glance, Cal fans rejoiced at the sight of the Wicked Witch’s demise and the apparent metamorphosis of conference parity from pipe dream to reality. Upon closer inspection, however, the Ducks’ coup d’état on USC’s crown has the potential to do more harm than good for the Golden Bears. Here’s why:
1. In-state recruiting, especially in Northern California. Of the 122 current Ducks, 66 hail from the Golden State, with 27 of them from the Bears’ backyard, which is anywhere north of Fresno. Moreover, 15 of their 22 starters are Californians (six of them NorCal natives). In eight years as UC Berkeley’s head coach, Jeff Tedford has done what his predecessor failed to accomplish by protecting the local talent pool, with Oakland’s Marshawn Lynch and Sacramento’s Syd’Quan Thompson being two prime examples of Oregon targets who chose to stay home. Nonetheless, with the Ducks’ recent success utilizing a lineup predominantly featuring California kids, an exodus of elite homegrown recruits to Eugene is not out of question.
2. Out-of-state recruiting. J.J. Arrington (North Carolina) and Boseko Lokombo (Canada) chose opposite destinations in past Cal-Oregon recruiting slugfests, and 2009 is no different. In jockeying for position behind USC as Pac-10’s second best, the Bears and Ducks have each finished runner-up twice the past seven years. Thus, an Oregon Rose Bowl berth poses a dangerous threat, since the Ducks would then be the first team to climb Mt. Monopoly, a fact that coach Chip Kelly will unabashedly exploit in his pitch to blue-chippers across the country who might also be considering Cal. In only his rookie campaign, Kelly handed Pete Carroll his worst loss ever; Tedford is 1-7 against his Trojan tormentor with only two field goals to show for his last two outings. With all the hoopla surrounding East Coast bias, the Ducks have duly earned national respect; the Bears, as a result of their two blowout losses to Oregon and USC, have been running in place as far as their perception in the national consciousness. These statistics do factor in a recruit’s decision-making process.
3. Oregon already enjoys advantages in the arms race. Nike founder Phil Knight reached in his deep pockets and pulled out $100 million for his alma mater Oregon two years ago. Autzen received a $90 million facelift in 2002. The Ducks’ facilities are easily among the best in the nation. At Cal, you have an elephant in the room in the appearance of budget cuts, tree-sitting protestors, and an empty BCS trophy case. The Holiday Bowl isn’t going to cut it when players want to smell roses.
The bottom line is that Oregon took a huge leap toward reaching equal footing with mighty USC, and it remains to be seen if Cal can recover from this blow.
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Counterpoint:
MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
To those overstating the Trojan blowout as the genesis of a Duck dynasty and subsequent banishment of the Bears to the fringes of irrelevance, it’s time to get off the grassy knoll. The Ducks may finish this season in Pasadena, but that scarcely means they have moved into the Pac-10 penthouse on a permanent basis. Remember, Mike Bellotti took the Ducks to a conference title and the Fiesta Bowl in 2002, but they never returned to the BCS under his watch. In fact, most attribute the Ducks’ regression over the following period to the loss of their offensive coordinator that year—Jeff Tedford. The Bears will withstand this storm, and precedent supports this argument. Here’s why:
1. One win does not make a program, especially in the recruiting game. What do Kansas, Oregon State, and Utah have in common? All three programs failed to reap a Top 25 signing class even after winning a BCS bowl that season. To further refute the line of reasoning that winning is the sole driving factor behind recruiting victories, what a difference two months can make. In the wake of the season-opening debacle at Boise State when LeGarrette Blount channeled Mike Tyson, the calls for Kelly’s head were so rampant that the coach even honored one fan’s request for a ticket refund. Rumors of de-commitments were as plentiful as the number of combinations in the Ducks’ uniforms. Yet, seven games later, are we to believe that everyone who jumped ship will now magically return? Hardly. By contrast, Tedford has eight winning seasons in as many years and has sent more players to the NFL than any other Pac-10 school except for USC. Recruits are well aware of this fact, so let time run its course before prematurely anointing Chip Kelly as the next Bear Bryant.
2. As far as defending California from going green, Oregon’s staff still has the arduous task of enticing kids to actually leave the state. In other words, things do not happen in a vacuum. As stated above, most recruits will go where they feel most comfortable. Sometimes that means embracing a utilitarian stance and family proximity as well as winning into consideration. Ask Vallejo’s Jahvid Best, who spurned both Oregon and USC due to his belief that he could play for a BCS contender and have loved ones watch him play at home. In short, while Kelly might continue to enjoy a measure of success in California—especially at historically Duck-leaning pipeline schools like Concord’s De La Salle—the Bears will always benefit from the advantage of recruiting on their home turf.
3. The facilities are on their way. The imminent completion of the Student-Athlete High Performance Center (SAHPC) will give Tedford the bargaining chip he desperately needs to keep pace with the Oregons of the world. With the aforementioned winning tradition, a world-class Berkeley education, and the added dimension the Bay Area offers that a place like Eugene cannot, suddenly all the Nike money only leads to diminishing returns.
When the Bears go Duck-hunting in Berkeley next year (like they did in 2004, 2006, and 2008) and culminate 2010-11 with their best signing class ever, this debate will be effectively put to rest. The only list Oregon will stay on top of is SI.com’s College Football’s Worst Uniforms ranking.
Additional research for this column provided by Matt Werner.
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